HDB buyer guide · worked receipt

What if the HDB valuation comes in below your price?

You agree the price before requesting the official valuation, so the 21-day OTP window can turn a price gap into a cash decision.

Worked example
Worked example — 4-room, Bedok North Rd area

Suppose the seller asks S$620,000.

Likely valuation range S$503,599–S$591,247
p10 (cautious) · valuation S$503,599 Cash you'd cover: S$116,401
p50 (midpoint) · valuation S$547,451 Cash you'd cover: S$72,549
p90 (upper) · valuation S$591,247 Cash you'd cover: S$28,753

Cash over valuation is payable in cash on top of the downpayment.

Computed on 2026-07-30 from transactions through 2026-06.

Run it for the flat you're eyeing

This refreshes the valuation range only. The evidence table below remains the worked example's evidence.

Research-estimate range for your flat

Cash over valuation is payable in cash on top of the downpayment.

What similar units actually transacted at — the worked example's evidence

These are historical transactions, not live listings — drawn from the last 12 months (64 matches; the 12 most recent shown, nearest the median first on ties). Each row states one or more differences from the example flat.

UnitStoreySizeLease leftMonthPricePSFDifference
119 BEDOK NTH RD 07 TO 09 990 sqft 51 years 2026-06 S$515,000 S$520 same street, 2 storeys lower, similar size, sold 1 month ago
181 BEDOK NTH RD 01 TO 03 990 sqft 79 years 2026-06 S$720,000 S$727 same street, 8 storeys lower, similar size, 27 years more lease left, sold 1 month ago
428 BEDOK NTH RD 07 TO 09 990 sqft 52 years 2026-05 S$565,000 S$571 same street, 2 storeys lower, similar size, sold 2 months ago
107 BEDOK NTH RD 10 TO 12 980 sqft 50 years 2026-05 S$550,000 S$561 same street, 1 storey higher, similar size, sold 2 months ago
428 BEDOK NTH RD 01 TO 03 990 sqft 52 years 2026-05 S$510,000 S$515 same street, 8 storeys lower, similar size, sold 2 months ago
79 BEDOK NTH RD 07 TO 09 980 sqft 51 years 2026-05 S$472,000 S$482 same street, 2 storeys lower, similar size, sold 2 months ago
182 BEDOK NTH RD 01 TO 03 990 sqft 79 years 2026-05 S$720,000 S$727 same street, 8 storeys lower, similar size, 27 years more lease left, sold 2 months ago
185 BEDOK NTH RD 10 TO 12 990 sqft 79 years 2026-05 S$780,000 S$788 same street, 1 storey higher, similar size, 27 years more lease left, sold 2 months ago
430A BEDOK NTH RD 04 TO 06 1,012 sqft 94 years 2026-05 S$900,000 S$889 same street, 5 storeys lower, 2% larger, 42 years more lease left, sold 2 months ago
708 BEDOK NTH RD 04 TO 06 980 sqft 54 years 2026-04 S$568,000 S$580 same street, 5 storeys lower, similar size, sold 3 months ago
119 BEDOK NTH RD 01 TO 03 990 sqft 51 years 2026-04 S$505,000 S$510 same street, 8 storeys lower, similar size, sold 3 months ago
82 BEDOK NTH RD 04 TO 06 990 sqft 51 years 2026-04 S$500,000 S$505 same street, 5 storeys lower, similar size, sold 3 months ago

Why the gap appears after you agree the price

For an HDB resale, the buyer and seller agree a price and the seller grants the Option to Purchase; the buyer then submits the Request for Value to HDB, and the official valuation arrives inside the 21-day option period — before the buyer decides whether to exercise. That sequence matters: the price is agreed while no authoritative valuation exists yet, and the valuation lands later as an input to financing and CPF use, while the option is still open. If it lands below the agreed price, the difference is cash over valuation, usually shortened to COV.

The awkward part is that COV is not a field you can look up in the public resale dataset. HDB stopped publishing COV figures in 2014. A recorded transaction price therefore bundles together the assessed value and any cash premium that buyer accepted. Looking at a list of prices alone cannot tell you how much of each deal was COV.

What makes an asking price defensible?

A defensible price has named comparables and visible adjustments. Start with transactions for the same town and flat type, then look at what is genuinely similar: floor area, street or block, storey band, lease and recency. A higher-floor sale or a larger unit is evidence, but it is not an identical unit. The difference column above makes that reasoning inspectable instead of hiding it inside one headline figure.

The range is more useful than pretending there is one certain number. The cautious, midpoint and upper scenarios show what cash you would cover if the official valuation landed at each point. This is subtraction only: agreed price minus the scenario valuation, floored at zero. It does not estimate your loan, grant, downpayment or eligibility.

Use a stopping rule before the valuation arrives: decide the maximum cash gap you are willing and able to cover, and be prepared to stop if the agreed price requires more than that boundary. That turns an anxious unknown into a decision you made in advance.

Method & provenance

The worked figures use URA/HDB historical transactions in the Nestbase corpus. The range comes from the quantile valuation model through the same engine used by /score; the named rows are the baked worked example's matched HDB resale transactions.

This is a research estimate, not a formal valuation. It uses historical transactions, not live listings, and should be checked against the official valuation and your own financial position.

Generated by scripts/comps_pull.py from the live corpus on 2026-07-30. Matched HDB resale transactions by town, flat type, time window and any supplied street, block or size filters.

Run a full check on your flat